KEDEKATAN STRATEGIS INDONESIA DALAM RIVALITAS AS–CINA PASCA COVID-19
Keywords:
US–China rivalry, foreign policy, composite indeks, Indonesia
Abstract
This study develops a Proximity Index to measure Indonesia's proximity to the United States and China, particularly after the COVID-19 pandemic. The index integrates three dimensions (economic, military, and diplomatic) to operationalize proximity as a multidimensional index. The time-series analysis reveals structural asymmetry: Indonesia's military ties remain consistently anchored to the US; economic dependence leans more toward China; and diplomacy is a fluctuating driver of the index. The study identifies three inflection points (2019, 2022, and 2024) when diplomatic oscillations (the COVID-19 pandemic, Indonesia's G20 presidency, and domestic leadership transition) recalibrate overall proximity. The statistical predictions suggest a gradual shift toward China due to strengthening economic integration. These findings also underscore that Indonesia's foreign policy reflects a rebalancing of its composition, rather than a complete restructuring.
References
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Pasaribu, N. T., Tama, A. A., Azzari, M. K., & Gautama, I. (2025). Green Arms Race: Indonesia’s Critical Minerals and its Sprint for Renewable Energy Sovereignty. Security Intelligence Terrorism Journal (SITJ), 2(1), 27–47. https://doi.org/10.70710/sitj.v2i1.30
Pevehouse, J. C. W. (2020). The COVID-19 Pandemic, International Cooperation, and Populism. International Organization, 74(S1), E191–E212. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818320000399
Posocco, L., & Watson, I. (2023). Re-imagining the nation-state: An impetus from the pandemic. Frontiers in Sociology, 8. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsoc.2023.1086569
Singer, J. D. (1963). Inter-Nation Influence: A Formal Model. American Political Science Review, 57(2), 420–430. https://doi.org/10.2307/1952832
Sulaiman, Y., Delanova, M., & Jati, R. (2021). Indonesia between the United States and China in a Post-Covid-19 World Order. ASIA POLICY, 16(1), 155–178.
Surianta, A. (2024, February 20). Prabowo’s challenge: Cabinet continuity. Lowy Institute. https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/prabowo-s-challenge-cabinet-continuity
The Fund for Peace. (2023). Fragile States Index Annual Report. https://fragilestatesindex.org/
Walt, S. M. (1985). Alliance Formation and the Balance of World Power. International Security, 9(4), 3–43. https://doi.org/10.2307/2538540
Waltz, K. N. (2010). Theory of international politics. Waveland Press.
Wei, I. S. C. (2024, August 26). What’s Behind the Resumption of China-Indonesia Military Exercises? The Diplomat. https://thediplomat.com/2024/08/whats-behind-the-resumption-of-china-indonesia-military-exercises/
Wendt, A. (1992). Anarchy is what states make of it: The social construction of power politics. International Organization, 46(2), 391–425. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818300027764
Wendt, A. (1999). Social Theory of International Politics. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511612183
Yuliantoro, N. R. (2022). The Politics of Vaccine Diplomacy and Sino-Indonesian Relations. Jurnal Global & Strategis, 16(1), 127–146. https://doi.org/10.20473/jgs.16.1.2022.127-146
Zubair, B., Waseem, S., & Shahid, K. (2023). Soft Power and Vaccine Diplomacy: An Analysis of China’s Global Image Enhancement during the COVID-19 Pandemic. BTTN Journal, 2(2), 107–133. https://doi.org/10.61732/bj.v2i2.73
Alhammadi, A. (2022). The neorealism and neoliberalism behind international relations during covid-19. World Affairs, 185(1), 147–175. https://doi.org/10.1177/00438200211065128
Ali, P. M. (2020). The Effects of Coronavirus on Global Relations and Strategy Making in International Arena. Eurasian Journal of Management & Social Sciences, 1(4), 33–38. https://doi.org/10.23918/ejmss.v1i4p33
Anwar, D. F. (2023). Indonesia’s hedging plus policy in the face of China’s rise and the US-China rivalry in the Indo-Pacific region. The Pacific Review, 36(2), 351–377. https://doi.org/10.1080/09512748.2022.2160794
Bailey, M. A., Strezhnev, A., & Voeten, E. (2017). Estimating Dynamic State Preferences from United Nations Voting Data. The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 61(2), 430–456.
Bapat, N. (2020). Will COVID-19 Cause a War? Understanding the Case of the U.S. and China. PEACE ECONOMICS PEACE SCIENCE AND PUBLIC POLICY, 26(3). https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2020-0047
Botero, G. (1589). The Reason of State.
Boylan, B. M., McBeath, J., & Wang, B. (2021). US–China Relations: Nationalism, the Trade War, and COVID-19. Fudan Journal of the Humanities and Social Sciences, 14(1), 23–40. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40647-020-00302-6
Cooper, R. N. (1985). Economic interdependence and coordination of economic policies. In Handbook of international economics (pp. 1195–1234). Elsevier BV. https://doi.org/10.1016/s1573-4404(85)02014-7
Der Derian, J. (with Internet Archive). (1987). On diplomacy: A genealogy of Western estrangement. Oxford, OX, UK ; New York, NY, USA : B. Blackwell. http://archive.org/details/ondiplomacygenea0000derd
Ferreira, I. A. (2017). Measuring state fragility: A review of the theoretical groundings of existing approaches. Third World Quarterly, 38(6), 1291–1309. https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2016.1257907
Finnemore, M., & Sikkink, K. (1998). International Norm Dynamics and Political Change. International Organization, 52(4), 887–917. https://doi.org/10.1162/002081898550789
García-Herrero, A., Storella, T., & Weil, P. (2025, September 16). China’s influence at the United Nations: Words and deeds. Working Paper 19/2024, Bruegel. https://www.bruegel.org/working-paper/chinas-influence-united-nations-words-and-deeds
Ghossein, T., Hoekman, B., & Shingal, A. (2021). Public Procurement, Regional Integration, and the Belt and Road Initiative. The World Bank Research Observer, 36(2), 131–163. https://doi.org/10.1093/wbro/lkab004
Goldstein, J. S. (1992). A Conflict-Cooperation Scale for WEIS Events Data. The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 36(2), 369–385.
He, X., Zheng, Y., & Chen, Y. (2025). Weapons and influence: Unpacking the impact of Chinese arms exports on the UNGA voting alignment. European Journal of Political Economy, 87(C). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102666
Jervis, R. (1988). Realism, Game Theory, and Cooperation. World Politics, 40(3), 317–349. https://doi.org/10.2307/2010216
Jolliffe, I. T. (2006). Principal Component Analysis. Springer Science & Business Media.
Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A., & Mastruzzi, M. (2010). The Worldwide Governance Indicators: Methodology and Analytical Issues (SSRN Scholarly Paper No. 1682130). Social Science Research Network. https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=1682130
Keohane, R. O. (1989). International institutions and state power: Essays in international relations theory. Westview Press.
Keohane, R. O., & Nye, J. S. (1973). Power and interdependence. Survival, 15(4), 158–165. https://doi.org/10.1080/00396337308441409
Klugman, J., Rodríguez, F., & Choi, H.-J. (2011). The HDI 2010: New controversies, old critiques. The Journal of Economic Inequality, 9(2), 249–288. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10888-011-9178-z
Kuik, C.-C. (2016). How Do Weaker States Hedge? Unpacking ASEAN states’ alignment behavior towards China. Journal of Contemporary China, 25(100), 500–514. https://doi.org/10.1080/10670564.2015.1132714
Kuik, C.-C. (2021). Getting hedging right: A small-state perspective. China International Strategy Review, 3(2), 300–315. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42533-021-00089-5
Kurtz, M. J., & Schrank, A. (2007). Growth and Governance: Models, Measures, and Mechanisms. The Journal of Politics, 69(2), 538–554. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2508.2007.00549.x
Lee, S. T. (2023). Vaccine diplomacy: Nation branding and China’s COVID-19 soft power play. Place Branding and Public Diplomacy, 19(1), 64–78. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41254-021-00224-4
Lowy Institute. (2024). Power Index: Methodology. Lowy Institute. https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/2024-asia-power-index-results
Mearsheimer, J. J. (2001). The tragedy of great power politics. WW Norton & Company.
Moon, C., Jeong, S., & Gardner, S. (2021). Cold War Discourse and Geopolitical Flashpoints in Post-Covid-19 Northeast Asia. JOURNAL FOR PEACE AND NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, 4, 284–307. https://doi.org/10.1080/25751654.2021.1902120
Morgenthau, H. J. (1973). Politics among nations. http://mangaldaicollege.digitallibrary.co.in/bitstream/123456789/728/1/Politics%20Among%20Nations.pdf
Nye Jr, J. S. (2004). Soft power: The means to success in world politics.
Office of Assistant to Deputy Cabinet Secretary. (2021, September 24). Indonesia Receives Two Million Vaccines from Chinese Government, Sinovac Company. Sekretariat Kabinet Republik Indonesia. https://setkab.go.id/en/indonesia-receives-two-million-vaccines-from-chinese-government-sinovac-company/
Parameswaran, P. (2016, April 6). Indonesia Sinks 23 Foreign Vessels After China Spat. The Diplomat. https://thediplomat.com/2016/04/indonesia-sinks-23-foreign-vessels-after-china-spat/
Pasaribu, N. T., Tama, A. A., Azzari, M. K., & Gautama, I. (2025). Green Arms Race: Indonesia’s Critical Minerals and its Sprint for Renewable Energy Sovereignty. Security Intelligence Terrorism Journal (SITJ), 2(1), 27–47. https://doi.org/10.70710/sitj.v2i1.30
Pevehouse, J. C. W. (2020). The COVID-19 Pandemic, International Cooperation, and Populism. International Organization, 74(S1), E191–E212. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818320000399
Posocco, L., & Watson, I. (2023). Re-imagining the nation-state: An impetus from the pandemic. Frontiers in Sociology, 8. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsoc.2023.1086569
Singer, J. D. (1963). Inter-Nation Influence: A Formal Model. American Political Science Review, 57(2), 420–430. https://doi.org/10.2307/1952832
Sulaiman, Y., Delanova, M., & Jati, R. (2021). Indonesia between the United States and China in a Post-Covid-19 World Order. ASIA POLICY, 16(1), 155–178.
Surianta, A. (2024, February 20). Prabowo’s challenge: Cabinet continuity. Lowy Institute. https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/prabowo-s-challenge-cabinet-continuity
The Fund for Peace. (2023). Fragile States Index Annual Report. https://fragilestatesindex.org/
Walt, S. M. (1985). Alliance Formation and the Balance of World Power. International Security, 9(4), 3–43. https://doi.org/10.2307/2538540
Waltz, K. N. (2010). Theory of international politics. Waveland Press.
Wei, I. S. C. (2024, August 26). What’s Behind the Resumption of China-Indonesia Military Exercises? The Diplomat. https://thediplomat.com/2024/08/whats-behind-the-resumption-of-china-indonesia-military-exercises/
Wendt, A. (1992). Anarchy is what states make of it: The social construction of power politics. International Organization, 46(2), 391–425. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818300027764
Wendt, A. (1999). Social Theory of International Politics. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511612183
Yuliantoro, N. R. (2022). The Politics of Vaccine Diplomacy and Sino-Indonesian Relations. Jurnal Global & Strategis, 16(1), 127–146. https://doi.org/10.20473/jgs.16.1.2022.127-146
Zubair, B., Waseem, S., & Shahid, K. (2023). Soft Power and Vaccine Diplomacy: An Analysis of China’s Global Image Enhancement during the COVID-19 Pandemic. BTTN Journal, 2(2), 107–133. https://doi.org/10.61732/bj.v2i2.73
Published
2025-12-30
How to Cite
Anwar, A., & Akta Padma Eldo, D. H. (2025). KEDEKATAN STRATEGIS INDONESIA DALAM RIVALITAS AS–CINA PASCA COVID-19. Dinamika Global : Jurnal Ilmu Hubungan Internasional, 10(2), 305-331. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.36859/jdg.v10i2.4643
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