Jurnal Dinamika Global

The Reluctant And The Compliant: Elite Competition, Social Cleavage, And The Domestic Limits Of Great-Power Compellence

Yohanes Sulaiman — 2026-06-30

Why do some weak states give in to a great power's demands while others, just as exposed, refuse and gain at home for refusing? This article puts the answer in the target's domestic politics rather than in the coercer's strength. A foreign demand does not reach a single government adding up costs and benefits; it drops into a running fight among elites, where any concession can be picked up by a rival and used as a weapon. Whether that danger is real depends on two things: how secure the regime is, and whether the demand touches a social cleavage an opposition can mobilize. I develop the argument through three responses to the United States tariff campaign of 2025. Indonesia and Vietnam complied within weeks; Brazil refused, and its president's standing rose. Power barely varied across the three. Their domestic politics did.

Civil Society And The Expansion Of Humanitarian Space In Southeast Asia: Negotiating Humanitarian Diplomacy Under Asean's Non-Intervention Norm

Novriest Umbu Walangara Nau — 2026-06-30

ASEAN's principle of non-intervention has come under sharp scrutiny when juxtaposed with humanitarian diplomacy. Using Finnemore and Sikkink's Norm Life Cycle Theory, this paper discusses how humanitarianism has developed in Southeast Asia, specifically examining the role of civil society organizations in promoting humanitarian issues in Myanmar conflict. This paper examines the availability of normative, institutional, and institutional space for humanitarian issues in Southeast Asia. The research results show that ASEAN's principle of non-intervention has evolved, indicating greater openness for ASEAN member states to address emerging internal issues. Civil society organizations contribute to the emergence of humanitarian norms in the region, but have not yet reached the norm cascade stage. ASEAN and its member states are engaging in strategic accommodation in addressing humanitarian issues, providing broader space, but are very careful in implementing it to avoid violating the foundation of the region, the principle of non-intervention.

Indonesian Diplomacy in Fulfilling the Right to Learn for Children of Indonesian Migrant Workers in Johor (2023-2025)

Suwarti Sari — 2026-06-30

This study critically examines the Indonesian government’s diplomatic efforts to protect and fulfill the educational rights of children of Indonesian migrant workers (PMI) in Johor, Malaysia. It specifically interrogates the challenges faced by children of informal sector workers, frequently undocumented, due to Malaysia’s regulations prohibiting informal migrant workers from marrying and starting families, which produce systemic barriers. Indonesia’s response leverages educational diplomacy and soft power, yet these measures are tested by regulatory constraints. The study identifies Community Learning Centers (CLCs) as a calculated transnational intervention, though they remain constrained by host-country sovereignty.

Indonesia's Energy Security Strategy through the Just Energy Transition Partnership: Implications for Energy Sovereignty

Faiz Mumtaz — 2026-06-30

Global energy instability has encouraged countries to position energy as a strategic commodity. This article examines how the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) influenced Indonesia’s energy security and its implications for energy sovereignty during 2022-2024. Drawing on Cherp and Jewell’s (2011) sovereignty perspective, the study employs qualitative research of primary and secondary data through three dimensions: control over the energy system, diversification and reduction of external vulnerabilities, and autonomy in energy transition governance. The findings show that JETP partially strengthens Indonesia’s energy sovereignty by diversifying the power sector, expanding transition capacity, and preserving national policy leadership. However, by 2024, Indonesia’s energy system remained dependent on fossil and imported fuels, while the transition was increasingly tied to foreign financing and technology. The article argues that JETP doesn’t eliminate vulnerability but shifts dependence towards external capital and technological networks. Thus, the JETP’s role in strengthening Indonesia’s energy security remains partial.

Collaborative Security Governance Against Transnational Extremism: Policy Lessons From Isis Regional Affiliates

Suhirwan Suhirwan — 2026-06-30

This study examines the evolution of ISIS regional affiliates and the growing importance of collaborative security governance in addressing transnational extremism in the digital era. Using a qualitative comparative case-study approach, the research draws on semi-structured interviews with fifteen academics, policymakers, governance experts, and security practitioners from various countries, supported by secondary data and reflexive thematic analysis. The findings reveal that ISIS has transformed from a territorially based movement into a decentralized digital network supported by groups such as ISIS-K, ISCAP, and Boko Haram. The use of online propaganda, digital recruitment, and cryptocurrency financing has strengthened cross-border radicalization and extremist resilience. The study also identifies fragmented governance, weak institutional coordination, and limited cyber-governance capacity as major challenges in countering adaptive extremism. This article argues that adaptive governance, intelligence sharing, and multi-stakeholder cooperation are essential for strengthening global resilience against contemporary extremist threats.

National Resilience Under Pressure: Indonesia’s Strategic Response To Indo-Pacific Geopolitical Competition

Ivan Rizky Apriharjadi — 2026-06-30

This article examines how Indo-Pacific geopolitical dynamics translate into concrete pressures on Indonesia’s national resilience and what policy responses are most plausible across the political, economic, and defense-security domains. It addresses a gap in the literature: studies on Indo-Pacific competition often remain separated from analyses of Indonesia’s national resilience and rarely integrate geopolitical structure, regional security interaction, and adaptive state capacity in a single framework. The study uses a qualitative literature-based design with a structured review of scholarly works, policy documents, and official statistical reports. The analysis applies framework analysis to trace causal pathways linking great-power rivalry, the South China Sea dispute, militarization, and regional economic interdependence to Indonesia’s resilience challenges. Because the study relies on secondary sources, it does not include primary interviews or subnational case evidence. The findings show that Indonesia is exposed to intensifying geopolitical competition through diplomatic pressure, supply-chain and investment vulnerability, and growing demands for maritime surveillance and defense modernization. At the same time, Indonesia’s strategic location also creates leverage through ASEAN-centred diplomacy, sea-lane connectivity, and issue-based cooperation. The article argues that strengthening national resilience requires not only adaptive diplomacy and maritime defense, but also economic diversification, institutional coordination, and a realistic recognition of policy trade-offs in responding to Indo-Pacific competition.

The Paradox Of Indonesia's Free And Active Foreign Policy In The Transitional Forum Of The Palestinian Board Of Peace: A Critical Analysis Of Fiqh Siyasah And Islamic Liberation Theology

Rodiatun Mardiah — 2026-06-30

Indonesia's involvement in the Palestinian Board of Peace (BoP), signed in Davos in early 2026, has sparked multidimensional controversy. This study aims to analyze the dynamics, implementation, and anatomy of the paradox within Indonesia's free and active foreign policy regarding the Palestinian BoP through the lens of Islamic law and morality. Utilizing a descriptive-critical qualitative method, this study dissects specific primary data in the form of state documents (the President's Speech at the 2024 D-8 Summit, official claims of the 2026 Davos BoP), civil society archives (the 2026 YLBHI Press Release), and philanthropic institutional reports (BAZNAS and Dompet Dhuafa). The results show that the government exercises dual-track diplomacy through transformative demands at the D-8 Summit and pragmatic participation in the Davos BoP. However, the involvement in Davos triggers a paradox because the reconstruction draft of "The New Gaza" textually reduces the existence of Palestinian sovereignty, as criticized by domestic civil elements. To balance this paradox, non-state actors responded through massive paradiplomacy in the form of Zakat, Infaq, and Sadaqah (ZIS) funding to ensure human security on the ground. Based on *siyasah dauliyah* and liberation theology, a peace agreement (*al-shulh*) is null and void and morally flawed if it legitimizes the security-first and capital-driven architecture of hegemonic powers. In conclusion, the legitimacy of Indonesia's foreign policy faces a crucial moral test; the state must distance itself from pseudo-pacification and absolutely side with the restoration of usurped rights (*istirdād al-ḥuqūq al-maslūbah*) for the full independence of Palestine.

The Monetization of Misogyny: Platform Capitalism and Manosphere's Political Economy

Annisa Nadhifa Ramadhani — 2026-06-30

Contemporary research often views the Manosphere as a cultural backlash or a masculinity crisis. This study reinterprets it as a political and economic system rooted in platform capitalism. Using International Political Economy, it explores how algorithms, affiliate marketing, and multi-level marketing profit from misogynistic radicalization. The analysis of Andrew Tate's "Hustler's University" shows that radicalization does not result from failed content moderation but is a predictable outcome of profit-driven algorithmic systems. Followers become unpaid digital workers, turning ideology into paid labor. The study argues that global governance and counter-terrorism strategies do not adequately address the issue. They focus on removing content instead of disrupting revenue streams. This changes the approach to platform regulation, shifting from speech-based moderation to financial de-platforming and algorithmic auditing.

Green Protectionism Or Green Diplomacy: An Analysis Of Indonesia’s Response To The Implementation Of The EU CBAM

Puan Putri Muthia — 2026-06-30

The European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is a global climate policy aimed at preventing carbon leakage through the imposition of carbon tariffs on high-emission imports. This policy has generated debate, particularly among developing countries such as Indonesia, where it is often perceived as a form of green protectionism that may reduce the competitiveness of carbon-intensive export sectors. While previous studies have primarily focused on the economic impacts of CBAM, limited attention has been given to Indonesia’s strategic response from the perspective of environmental diplomacy. This study aims to analyze Indonesia’s response to the implementation of CBAM and assess whether the policy reflects green protectionism or creates opportunities for strengthening green diplomacy. Using a qualitative policy analysis based on thematic content analysis of official documents and relevant literature, this study employs structuralist and liberal perspectives to examine the policy dynamics. The findings indicate that CBAM has an ambivalent character: it reinforces structural inequalities through environmental trade barriers while simultaneously encouraging Indonesia to strengthen emission regulations, promote green industrial transformation, and enhance diplomatic engagement through mechanisms such as IEU-CEPA negotiations. This study contributes to the CBAM literature by demonstrating that the policy functions not only as a trade instrument but also as a catalyst for green diplomacy in developing countries.

Governance Trilemma On The “Green-Blue Economy” Integration In Global Environmental Policy Making

Bambang Wahyu Nugroho — 2026-06-30

This study examines the integration of land-based green and ocean-based blue economies, which remain separately governed despite shared relevance to the SDGs and Paris Agreement. Analyzing five national through a comparative case study method, it identifies four integration models, i.e (1) necessity-driven, (2) technocratically-driven, (3) opportunity-driven, and (4) fragmented. Those are shaped by local political-economic factors. A key finding is a governance trilemma, where mobilizing finance, controlling cross-boundary externalities, and ensuring procedural justice are rarely balanced. The article advances beyond normative calls for integration by specifying conditions for success or failure, and offers a diagnostic tool for policymakers. It concludes that effective green-blue integration demands context-sensitive architectures that jointly address finance, externalities, and justice as foundations for resilience and equity.