PERUBAHAN KEBIJAKAN LUAR NEGERI RUSIA DI SURIAH DAN LIBYA TAHUN 2022-2024

Abstract

This study examines the shift in Russia’s foreign policy in Syria and Libya between 2022–2024. It analyzes Russia’s contrasting policies of reducing its military presence in Syria while expanding in Libya. The research applies Gideon Rose’s Neoclassical Realism and Charles F. Hermann’s Foreign Policy concept, using a comparative Most Similar System Design (MSSD) method. Findings indicate that Russia’s reduced engagement in Syria was driven by the resource drain of the Ukraine war, economic burdens, and the risks of prolonged conflict. Iran’s expanded influence and the fall of Bashar al-Assad further limited Russia’s role, leaving only Tartus and Latakia bases. Conversely, Russia strengthened its military presence in Libya to counter growing influence from Turkey, NATO, and the EU, while securing energy routes and geopolitical leverage. These contrasting policies reflect Russia’s adaptation to balance global ambitions, national security, and regional influence in MENA.