DAMPAK AMERIKA SERIKAT KELUAR DARI PERJANJIAN INTERMEDIATE-RANGE NUCLEAR FORCES (INF) TERHADAP STABILITAS KEAMANAN GLOBAL

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of the United States’ withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty on August 2, 2019, on global security stability. Signed in 1987 by the US and the Soviet Union, the INF Treaty marked a milestone in controlling intermediate-range nuclear weapons. The US withdrawal was based on allegations of Russian violations, particularly the development of the 9M729 missile, which Russia denied. This decision sparked concerns among major powers, especially in Europe and the Asia-Pacific, about the resurgence of an arms race reminiscent of the Cold War. The impacts include heightened military tensions in Eastern Europe, strategic dilemmas for NATO members, and potential missile competition escalation in the Asia-Pacific between the US and China. Using a qualitative descriptive approach and literature study, this research identifies implications for the military and environmental sectors, and examines shifts in international alliance patterns. The findings reveal that the US exit from the INF weakens arms control regimes, increases the risk of strategic instability, and encourages offensive defense policies by major powers. The study recommends multilateral diplomacy to reduce escalation and build a new inclusive arms control regime.